Public bond rates continued to advance strongly this Tuesday afternoon (19). Some titles hit new record levels. In fixed-rate securities, rates advance up to 14 basis points, while in inflation-linked bonds, the rise is up to 12 basis points.
Luciano Costa, chief economist and partner at Monte Bravo Investimentos, explains that the main reason that impacts interest rates is fiscal risk, with news involving changes in the spending cap rule. “The government is discussing that from 2023 onwards, there could be a real growth in the spending ceiling, considering the IPCA (Extended Consumer Price Index) plus growth”, he explains.
In the economist’s view, the discussion of a possible real growth of 1.5% in the spending ceiling stressed the market, added to news about a change in fiscal policy, removing the target around the primary ceiling and transforming it into a debt target. .
“All these fiscal issues are leaving the market with doubts about 2023. In addition to electoral noise, which raises the premiums on the yield curve, due to the proximity of the elections”, says Costa.
According to him, although Petrobras’ discount on the price of gasoline could take around 15 basis points off the Selic rate, in the period from June to August, the fixed income market did not price this scenario.
In inflation-linked bonds, he cites that premiums may even decrease as the end of the Selic high cycle approaches, however, until then, the dynamic is one of resistance in reducing rates for the short term.
In the external scenario, financial agents are still awaiting a policy decision from the European Central Bank (ECB), which will be presented on Thursday (21).
Market consensus expects the monetary authority to announce a hike of 0.25 percentage point. However, there is a chance that the ECB will seek more aggressive adjustments. Citing a source, the Reuters said that the institution will assess whether to opt for a 50 basis point increase (0.50 percentage point).
Within Treasury Direct, fixed-rate securities maturing in 2025 and 2029 reached a new record level. These papers offered an annual return of 13.45% and 13.49%, respectively, surpassing the historical profitability seen this Tuesday (19) morning.
The Fixed-rate Treasury 2033, with semi-annual interest, was close to the record, with an annual return of 13.57% – slightly lower than the historical return of 13.58%, recorded earlier.
The increase in relation to the rates seen yesterday in the fixed rate reached up to 14 basis points.
Learn more at:
Treasury Direct: returns on fixed-rate securities register another historic session; what explains this rise?
In inflation-linked bonds, the movement was also strong. The biggest real gain registered among the bonds was that of the IPCA+ 2055 Treasury, of 6.28%.
The IPCA+ 2026 Treasury also presented historical profitability. At 3:32 pm, the security offered a real return of 6.26%, above the record initially seen this morning of 6.24%. The paper was made available by the Treasury in February 2020.
Check the prices and rates of all public securities available for purchase at the Treasury Direct this Tuesday afternoon (19):
Petrobras (PETR4) announces a reduction in the price of gasoline
As of next Wednesday (20), the average sale price of gasoline from Petrobras (PETR3;PETR4) to distributors will go from R$4.06 to R$3.86 per liter, a reduction of R$0 .20 per litre, or a drop of 4.93%.
Considering the mandatory blending of 73% gasoline A and 27% anhydrous ethanol for the composition of gasoline sold at gas stations, Petrobras’ share of the consumer price will increase from R$2.96, on average, to R$2.81 for each liter sold at the pump, or a drop of 5.07%.
“This reduction follows the evolution of international reference prices, which stabilized at a lower level for gasoline, and is consistent with Petrobras’ pricing practice, which seeks to balance its prices with the global market, but without passing it on to the internal prices of the cyclical volatility of international quotations and the exchange rate”, highlighted the company.
The company did not announce a change in the price of diesel.
Also noteworthy are indicators from Europe. The euro zone’s annual consumer inflation rate (CPI) hit a new all-time high of 8.6% in June, accelerating from 8.1% in May, according to final data released on Tuesday by the European Union statistics agency, Eurostat.
The June result confirmed the preliminary reading and was in line with the expectations of analysts consulted by the The Wall Street Journal.
Only the bloc’s core CPI, which disregards energy and food prices, had an annual gain of 3.7% in June, confirming the previous estimate. In comparison with May, the core index increased by 0.2% in the last month.
Elections and Aid PEC
On the political scene, Edson Fachin, president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), rebutted yesterday (18) the accusations made by President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) about the fairness of the electoral system and electronic voting machines.
Fachin called the episode a “staging”. Without citing Bolsonaro’s name, the president of the TSE said that it is necessary to put an end to disinformation and authoritarian populism.
The day before (18), President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) called a meeting with ambassadors to attack the electoral system, but without presenting evidence.
Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), president of the Senate, also reacted to the new attacks made by Bolsonaro. The parliamentarian stated that the system’s smoothness can no longer be questioned.
Attention also to the news that the New Party filed, yesterday (18), a Direct Action of Unconstitutionality (ADI) with the Federal Supreme Court (STF) questioning Constitutional Amendment 123/2022, arising from the PEC dos Auxílios (PEC 1/ 2022), enacted by the National Congress last week. The party calls for the suspension of the effects of the measure at least until the end of the electoral process.
The approved text recognized the state of emergency, “resulting from the extraordinary and unpredictable rise in the prices of oil, fuel and its derivatives and the resulting social impacts”, in addition to expanding benefits that already existed less than three months before the elections.