The Ibovespa closed up 0.38% this Monday (18), at 96,916 points. The main index of the Brazilian stock market advanced with the help of commodities, even with the benchmarks Americans falling together.
The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down 0.69%, 0.84% and 0.81%, respectively. Outside, the end of the day was marked by pessimism, with the market, according to Alvaro Ferris, an investment specialist at Rico, reacting negatively to the news that Apple (AAPL34) will reduce hiring and cut expenses – which strengthens the prospects for that the United States will experience a recession.
Not even the signal from Federal Reserve directors that the US central bank will not raise the fed funds by one percentage point next week, but rather maintaining the 0.75 point high already seen prevented the declines.
You treasuries yields with a ten-year maturity also ignored the speeches of the monetary authorities, rising 4.4 basis points, to 2.974%, driven by the rise in commodities.
“The Ibovespa reflected mostly news from China, with the Asian giant wanting to inject liquidity into the market, especially in its real estate sector”, comments Fabrizio Velloni, chief economist at Frente Corretora. “China is trying to generate liquidity in its market to boost its economy, which has been skating. With that, commodities rose sharply,” he explains.
The price of a barrel of Brent oil advanced 4.47% to US$ 105.68. The price of iron ore, in turn, rose 2.18% at the port of Dalian, at US$ 100.69.
As a result, Petrobras’ common and preferred shares (PETR3;PETR4) were the highlights of the trading session, advancing 3.33% and 2.29%, respectively. PetroRio’s common stock (PRIO3) rose 6.72% and 3R Petroleum’s (RRRP3) rose 2.26%.
“Today, there was a rebound in prices and some exposure to risk. At the close, a worsening, due to caution, in a week that has interest rate decisions in Europe”, contextualizes Enrico Cozzolino, partner and head analysis of Levante Investimentos.
Earlier, China’s announcements had eased fears of a global recession and sent risk aversion down – the DXY, which measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of currencies, fell 0.59%. The American currency, however, strengthened against the real, with a rise of 0.39%, at R$ 5.425 in the purchase and at R$ 5.426 in the sale, with a worsening of the Brazilian currency at the end of the trading session.
“We had a return, with stronger interest rates and the dollar, in an environment worried about inflation, recession and geopolitics. In the local scenario, there is the election, which also brings greater caution and which corroborates the Ibovespa with resistance at 98 thousand points”, explains Cozzolino.
The Brazilian yield curve advanced en bloc. The 2024 DI saw its yield rise four basis points to 13.92%, and the 2025 yield closed up 24 points to 13.38%. The DIs for 2027 and 2029 had their rates rising, respectively, by 25 and 23 points, to 13.22% and 13.32%.
“Future interest rates rise again with the rise in commodities and with the release of the IGP-10 in the morning, which showed a deceleration compared to June, but still above initial projections”, says Leandro De Checchi, an analyst at Clear Corretora.
Among the biggest falls on the Ibovespa were the common shares of EzTec ([ativo=EZTC]), with minus 5.88%, after the construction company released its operational forecasts for the second quarter. Behind it came growth companies that were more linked to the domestic scenario: Petz’s common shares (PETZ3) fell 5.10%, Méliuz’s (CASH3), 4.51% and Locaweb’s (LWSA3), 4.02 %.
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