Treasury Direct: public bond rates decline with dollar and investors projecting lower inflation

Public bond rates operate in a mixed movement this Wednesday afternoon (20). Some fixed-rate and inflation-linked bonds experience a drop in rates, while others operate with stability.

According to André Perfeito, chief economist at Necton, the yield curve is practically at a standstill, with rates following the downward movement of the dollar and investors believing in a ‘less bad’ scenario for inflation. “I think the market has already incorporated the bad news,” he says.

At around 4:01 pm, the commercial dollar fell by 1.03%, quoted at R$4.6189.

In a comment, Perfect mentions that inflation should decline in May, as a result of the end of the fuel shock and the more benign effects of the review of the green flag on prices. “If this scenario is confirmed, we will have a drop in inflation in 12 months from 12.19% to 11.54%”, he points out.

In the external scenario, investors follow the views presented in the Beige Book, released this Wednesday by the Federal Reserve. The document is a summary of opinions that support the monetary decisions of the US institution.

Within the Treasury Direct, short and medium-term fixed rate rates dropped at 3:22 pm. The 2025 Fixed Rate Treasury offered an annual return of 12.07%, down from the 12.17% seen yesterday.

The Fixed Rate Treasury 2029 delivered an annual return of 12.03%, lower than the 12.08% of the previous session.

The 2033 Fixed Rate Treasury rates, with semiannual interest, were stable.

In inflation-linked bonds, only the rates on bonds maturing in 2026 and 2032 declined.

The Treasury IPCA+ 2026 delivered a real return of 5.31%, below the 5.34% seen on Tuesday (19). While the IPCA+ 2032 Treasury, with semi-annual interest, offered a real gain of 5.53%, down 5.56% from the previous session.

Check the prices and rates of all public securities available for purchase at the Treasury Direct that were offered this Wednesday afternoon (20):

beige book

According to the document, economic activity has expanded at a moderate pace since mid-February, with several districts reporting moderate employment gains despite challenges in hiring and retention in the labor market.

“Industrial activity was generally solid in most districts, but supply chain delays, labor market rigidities and high input costs continued to pose challenges to companies’ ability to meet demand,” the text reads. .

According to the Beige Book, spikes in energy, metals and agricultural commodity prices were reported following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and several noted that the Covid-19 lockdowns in China worsened supply chain disruptions. “Companies in most districts expect inflationary pressures to continue in the coming months.”

In addition, there is also a problem, when it comes to employment, of a lack of available workers. “Many companies reported significant turnover as workers left for higher wages and more flexible working hours,” they say.

The document published by the Federal Reserve also points out that in all districts sharp increases in raw material, transportation and labor costs were observed. “Companies in most districts expect inflationary pressures to continue in the coming months,” they say.

According to the institution, the rise in prices is also starting to impact the demand side. “Contacts in some districts have noticed negative impacts on sales due to rising prices”, points out the American monetary authority.

According to the document, “it is the strong demand that generally allows companies to pass on the increase in input costs to customers”. In the event that demand continues to be impacted, it is likely that, soon, companies will start to reduce margins.

Projections for the Brazilian GDP

Although it revised this year’s world GDP downwards, positive data, such as a rise in retail sales, an increase in commodity prices and the release of the Severance Indemnity Fund (FGTS), led the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to review upward the forecast of growth of the Brazilian economy this year.

In the view of the IMF, Brazil should grow 0.8%. Previous expectation was 0.3%, compared to world growth of 3.6% (4.4% before).

Readjustment of civil service and extraordinary looting

Meanwhile in the local political scene, one of the highlights of the day is the readjustment to public servants, which is being stitched between the Planalto and members of the economic team.

According to the newspaper Economic value, the government began to evaluate the possibility of granting a linear increase of 5% as of July this year, plus an increase of R$ 400 in the food ticket. Until then, the two measures were presented separately.

Despite internal discussions, no formal decision was taken, according to the Value.

The readjustment requests have been growing and now even extend to the Judiciary. The Association of Federal Judges of Brazil (Ajufe) reported that it should appeal to the president of the Supreme Court, Luiz Fux, in search of a project that guarantees a raise to magistrates this year, if President Jair Bolsonaro, in fact, fulfills his promise of readjustment. of 5% for civil and military servants from July.

After days of strikes, Central Bank employees decided to give a “vote of confidence” to Roberto Campos Neto, president of the monetary authority, and suspend the strike for two weeks in an attempt to advance the negotiations.

Until May 2, the category will adopt standard operation, in which activities run at a slower pace, and will resume daily 4-hour stoppages, from 2 pm to 6 pm, a strategy already adopted from March 17 to 31.

Also on the political scene, the extraordinary withdrawal of the Severance Indemnity Fund (FGTS) begins this Wednesday (20). In the early morning, the application showed instability when querying values.

For those who have their tickets up to date and have no right destination for the extra money that is about to enter the account, see how to invest the maximum amount of R$ 1 thousand that each worker can withdraw.