Bitcoin (BTC) is already down about 42% from an all-time high of $69,000 hit in November 2021, and amid an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop, some investors fear the pullback may not be over. However, those who follow the market longer do not believe that the losses will extend as much as in other bear periods.
Between 2013 and 2015, and between 2017 and 2018, for example, the cryptocurrency plummeted more than 80% from all-time highs. “I no longer believe that these movements will happen with this magnitude”, evaluated Alexandre Ludolf, investment director at QR Asset in an interview with Cripto+ last night.
“The maturity of the asset class is different, the investor profile [é outro]especially those with a longer horizon, who will look at sharper downward movements as a buying opportunity”, explained Ludolf.
The expert admits that the cryptocurrency is currently undergoing a bear market (prolonged low period), catalyzed by investor concerns about the expected aggressive increase in US interest rates as a means of tackling inflation.
However, he points out that the crypto landscape has changed a lot in recent years and so the likelihood of seeing the BTC price drop as much as before is very low – an 80% pullback this time, it’s worth remembering, would equate to a drop. of the digital currency to around $13,800.
Trust is at a more favorable moment in terms of institutional adoption, and above all in technological advances. The growing popularity of cryptocurrency wallets and technologies such as the Lightning network, which accelerates and makes Bitcoin transactions cheaper, would be a sign that the industry around the digital asset has established itself and, therefore, Bitcoin must have a guaranteed space in the wallet. of investors.
“When we see Lightning adoption growing 800% in 12 months, for me, it’s a very important leading indicator of Bitcoin’s price”, points out the director of QR Asset, a crypto fund manager and responsible for three asset ETFs. digital currencies traded on B3.
When can the fall end?
If in the long term the bet is right for experts in the field, the short term paints a more uncertain scenario for cryptocurrencies. Between highs and lows since the end of last year, Bitcoin, which continues to set the tone for the market as a whole, rehearsed a high in March, but has already lost all gains in April and even dropped to less than US$. 40 thousand yesterday.
The “crypto winter”, however, may not last as long as the most pessimistic think. “There were movements in Bitcoin’s recent past where it took more than two years to recover. But, other movements in the order of 50%, like the one we had, in two or three months it has already returned to the top”.
One such moment happened in 2017, when BTC dropped from $5,000 to $3,000, and recovered to its previous level in about 40 days. Following that year, the price exploded to a then high of $20,000 – a 300% jump.
“If you have the appetite for risk and the stomach to handle volatility, in less than two years, in general, [o investimento] it pays, and it pays well, even when buying at the worst time”, recalled Ludolf.
The key to breaking out of the bearish momentum would be to reduce Bitcoin’s correlation with Nasdaq, which has been increasing since the second half of last year. The bet is that this will occur when the cycle of interest rate increases ends.
“The decorrelation is in the recovery. It may fall more or less together, but the recovery will be much faster”, pointed out the QR executive. “It is a technology that is replacing a legacy technology, the entire infrastructure [do mercado financeiro] which has been the same since 1980”.
What happens in the short term?
The perspective from a technical analysis point of view seems to agree so far with the view of the expert at QR Asset. Also participating during Crypto+, trader Vinícius Terranova said that the charts point to the possibility of a drop to a maximum of US$ 20 thousand, which would result in a loss of 71% of the maximum. However, such a sharp retreat would be unlikely.
For now, analysts believe that BTC has a very strong support (price with high buying interest) close to $30,000, which coincides with the average price of large cryptocurrency buyers, such as the American MicroStrategy, which has almost 130,000. bitcoins valued at around $4 billion.
As next steps, Terranova is betting on a resumption of up to US$43,000 to US$47,000, which should precede a further drop to less than US$40,000, this time possibly stopping in the range of US$37,000 to US$37,000. $35,000 – if this level is lost, it would increase the chances of the cryptocurrency trading again for $30,000.
At the close of the story, BTC was up 5.6% in the last 24 hours at $41,585.
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